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2024-12-13 11:45:30

Novo Nordisk: After the clinical trial results of kidney therapy were released, European regulators gave Ozempic a positive label evaluation.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Potential inflation and inflation continue to return to the target in the same direction.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.


Lian Ping: The Central Economic Work Conference released a strong financial afterburner signal to lower the RRR or cut interest rates at the end of this year or early next year. Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and president of the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said in an interview that the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that "a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented" and "lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates at the right time", which means that it is expected to intensify next year. Combined with the current domestic and international situation and liquidity situation, it is expected that the RRR cut and interest rate cut will land at the end of this year and early next year. Regarding "exploring and expanding the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank", Lian Ping believes that, on the one hand, the monetary policy should be reasonable and moderate, with a steady pace, so as to avoid a big deviation from market demand; On the other hand, monetary policy should explore and expand related fields and innovate constantly in maintaining financial stability. The functional connotation of the subsequent central bank is expected to be further enriched, and its coverage function may be extended to the whole financial field. "Next, whether it is the real estate market or the stock market, we need to build a long-term mechanism for financial stability." Lian Ping said. (SSE)Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.The European Central Bank expects inflation to cool down faster. It is reported that the European Central Bank now expects inflation to cool down slightly faster than the forecast in September. It currently predicts that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the statement, the European Central Bank also said: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track."


Trump was elected as Time Magazine's Person of the Year for the second time, and Time Magazine awarded Donald Trump, who is about to re-enter the White House, with the recognition of his amazing political comeback and his historic year of assassination attempt and felony conviction. This result also confirms the general expectation. Since Bush in 2000, the magazine has awarded this honor to the winner in every presidential election. Trump was also named the magazine's person of the year when he first won the US election in 2016.Qualcomm appointed BAAZIZ ACHOUR as Chief Technology Officer.Analysis: The initial application data in the United States unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose last week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase at the end of November compared with the beginning of the year, due to the cooling of labor demand. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week of December 7, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 242,000 after seasonal adjustment. Economists had expected that the number of initial jobless claims last week was only 220,000. The jump in initial jobless claims last week may reflect the fluctuation after the Thanksgiving holiday, but it may not mark a sudden change in the job market. The number of initial jobless claims may still fluctuate in the next few weeks, which may make it difficult to understand the job market clearly.

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